The New York Fed Recession Probability Index is ticking up … and sharply so of late. The Index calculates the probability of recession in the US 12-months ahead, as predicted by the Treasury Spread, conceptually tracking the general state of the economy as it relates to economic conditions for businesses. The Index hit a high of 42 during the Great Recession and has climbed back to 24 in January 2019, which means it’s 57% of the way there … over halfway. Lately, the Index is rising exponentially, from 16% last November 2018 to 24% in January 2019 – that’s a meteoric 50% rise in 2 months!