For those of you accustomed to our Market Reports, you already know that we back up what we think by investing accordingly. Here at www.signalsmatter.com, the macro drives our five portfolio solutions (conservative to aggressive), which I directly manage. Bullish macro drives bullish investing; bearish macro drives bearish investing. It makes sense. That’s the easy part.
The Harder Part
The more challenging part is market timing. As I publish this Market Report, the rip-roaring rally in the Nasdaq has grown to a valuation reportedly equivalent in worth to the entire output of the US economy! That’s bullish, but beware of what you wish for, for now, as the tide may turn.
Markets go up and markets go down. Most traditional investors rely on Wall Street financial advisors to let them know when markets are bullish or bearish and act accordingly. While Wall Street may tweak your portfolio by 10-15%, given the macro, most advisors put clients into “set it and forget it” portfolios, with 60% invested in stocks and 40% in bonds.
Let’s think about that. The bet is that stocks and bonds will rise in tandem, like a Goldilocks or Barbie economy. Set it and forget it.
That didn’t work out so well in 1990-1991 (the Gulf War), 2001 (the Dot Com Recession), 2007-2009 (the Great Recession), or 2020 (the COVID-19 recession), and it’s not going to work out so well in the next downturn—trust me. Here’s the math: If you’re down by half (50%), you must be up by two times (100%) just to recover to where you were.
Be Careful What You Wish For
Here we are today, watching the “Magnificent 7” climb to unheard-of heights. Who is in the Magnificent Seven? There are two correct answers.
(1) Yul Brynner, Eli Wallach, Steve McQueen, Charles Bronson, Robert Vaughn, James Coburn, Horst Buchholz, and Brad Dexter in the 1960 film Magnificent Seven.
(2) Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOG & GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Tesla (TLSA), and Meta Platforms (META), most of the Nasdaq.
What do they have in common? A lot of hubris; neither is bulletproof.
In the movie, most Magnificent Seven suffered wounds; two died. In 2022, all seven of the Nasdaq Magnificent Seven finished the year with double-digit percentage losses.
Fast Forward
Fast-forward to 2023, and the Magnificent Seven stocks collectively achieved an impressive average return of 111%, compared to a 24% return for the broader S&P 500 Index. This 2024, they’re still on a tear. But let’s get real. One of the most significant risks of investing in these stocks is their high valuations, not to mention that tech spending tends to be cyclical and subject to recession.
Prudent investors diversify by taking a more diversified and balanced approach, actively managing their portfolios, going long or short the markets with strategies that work over the long haul by not setting and forgetting.
Solutions are Plentiful
If you know where to look, solutions are plentiful. Signals Matter, for example, provides diversified Portfolio Solutions to Subscribers that are long, short, or neutral, depending on the markets. Subscribers take stock of our suggestions and call their broker.
In addition, accredited investors will soon be able to leave the driving to us with the launch later this March of Direct Invest. If you’re an accredited investor and interested in Direct Invest, go to www.SignalsMatterAdvisors.com for more information, or click here for an online meeting with directly, the Fund Portfolio Manager.
With the launch of Signals Matter Partners, LP, stand by for much portfolio talk alongside macro talk in the Market Reports to come.
Best, Thomas Lott
Signals Matter Market Reports reflect the company’s long-term macro views and are posted free of charge at www.SignalsMatter.com, on LinkedIn, and directly to your inbox by Signing Up Here. Our Portfolio Solutions are geared to shorter timeframes and may, therefore, differ from our longer-term perspectives. They are available to Subscribers who Join Here. For information on Direct Invest, click Direct Invest or Book a Meeting.
